HOW TO SOLVE CURRENT CELTIC DEFENSIVE WOES
- By LIAM McBRIDE
- 12 minutes ago
- 4 min read
Ahead of a tough trip to Fir Park, which could see Celtic draw level on points with league leaders Hearts, Liam McBride attempts to answer the question on all our minds:
How do we stop leaking goals?
After four straight losses to start Wilfried Nancy’s tenure, Celtic have steadied the ship with back-to-back wins against Aberdeen and Livingston. Yet, there is an irony in this as the football on show has been anything but steady.
For neutral fans, Celtic are the league’s entertainers. Goals are guaranteed, you’re just not sure for which side. Our current chaotic nature is best characterized in the ongoing Celtic defensive woes.
No Quick Fix For Celtic Defensive Woes
Over the past few weeks, the usage of the word “system” in the Scottish football hemisphere has reached an unprecedented high. It’s still early days, but the 3-4-2-1 formation has revealed clear strengths and weaknesses. Although, like all setups, it’s reliant on its tools to function.
The Champions line up with three centre backs and two defensive midfielders in front of them. The wide centre back, when space opens up, is encouraged to progress forward and function as though a fullback of a back four. Otherwise, they look to link with either the defensive midfielder or wingback in front of them.
In front of this 7, is a forward three, who constantly interchanges and looks to make darting runs into the box. One pattern in particular is the play in behind for Maeda as left winger to run onto and cut a pass back across to a striker or an on-running Benjamin Nygren.
In possession, this team has many similar principles to an Ange Postecoglou side, even if the exact setup doesn’t match. However, the quality of player in comparison with that of the Aussie’s tenure is considerably lower. So, while the patterns can work, Celtic often fail to make their chances count. For a team that has scored seven goals in its last two matches, this sounds ridiculous to say. Yet, the stats don’t lie.
According to Sofascore, Celtic have had 25 big chances since Wilfried Nancy's arrival (discarding the Premier Sports Cup Final). They define a “big chance” as a “Clear-cut opportunities where a player is expected to score; usually one-on-one situations or shots from close range with minimal defensive pressure.” Of the 25, they have scored nine. If we take out the 3-0 Roma defeat and focus solely on league form, it’s nine out of 22. That is a rate of a goal every 2.4 big chances. In comparison, Rangers have scored six from fifteen (2.5), Hearts eight from eight(1) and Hibs seven from 10 (1.42).
As with every stat, it doesn’t tell the full picture, teams score from chances that aren’t deemed “big chances” and penalties can also skew these statistics. Nevertheless, it’s an indicator of the most creative teams in the league. Taking this into account, despite Hearts' lead at the top, it’s the two Glasgow sides that have been recently creating the best opportunities.
Yet, football isn’t played on paper, neither is it solely attacking based.
While we discussed earlier the Celtic attacking principles, defensively, it seems all at sea. When the Bhoys lose the ball, they simply look confused. Gaping holes appear for the opposition to run into. The back three, which often turns into a two in the turnover, is left chasing their own goal, with sometimes only one of the defensive midfielders able to join them. Three players retreating, all in central areas, it’s a recipe for disaster.
I was vocal after the 2-1 defeat to Hearts about moving Auston Trusty from the right centre-back role. My reasoning was due to the build up limitations it provides.
I said, “The left-footed American was uncomfortable driving into space. This led to Hearts organising a press that isolated him on the ball, knowing they were safe in this scenario.” What I expected was the right-footed Jahmai Simpson-Pusey to move into this position. After all, he has played there for Pep Guardiola’s Man City.
Instead, Anthony Ralston has played at centre-back with Yang in front as a wing-back. To put it bluntly, it’s an experiment that must stop. At right wing back, Yang has no defensive awareness. His pressing, one-on-one defending and attacking impress, but to play that position you need more. It’s not a criticism of him; it’s just a fact that he isn’t built to play there. In this system, it’s the hardest position on the park. Meanwhile, Ralston, behind him, has just looked clueless.
The obvious approach against Celtic is to target this side. Nancy should put Trusty back to the right side, as that means that with the American on one side and Kieran Tierney on the other, there is speed to try and cover oncoming counterattacks.
Do this and the next two games are manageable. Make no mistake, they won’t be easy. Motherwell were competitive in a 3-2 loss at Celtic Park earlier this season, while the Glasgow Derby is always a tough tie. Yet, should the Frenchman persist with the current right hand side, a colossal week for the Hoops could turn ugly.